Aurora forecast: Kp index and chance by place
NOAA space weather, a cloud forecast and the hours that are dark enough, for six places from Iceland to Alaska.
Kp index now
1.67Quiet
Aurora chance in Tromsø
8%
Cloud cover
89%Mostly cloudy
Sky
Dark enough
Tromsø is inside the oval even at Kp 0.
Next 36 hours in Tromsø
- Sat 17 Oct, 01:00: Dark but cloudy
- Sat 17 Oct, 02:00: Dark but cloudy
- Sat 17 Oct, 03:00: Dark but cloudy
- Sat 17 Oct, 04:00: Dark but cloudy
- Sat 17 Oct, 05:00: Dark but cloudy
- Sat 17 Oct, 06:00: Too light
- Sat 17 Oct, 07:00: Too light
- Sat 17 Oct, 08:00: Too light
- Sat 17 Oct, 09:00: Too light
- Sat 17 Oct, 10:00: Too light
- Sat 17 Oct, 11:00: Too light
- Sat 17 Oct, 12:00: Too light
- Sat 17 Oct, 13:00: Too light
- Sat 17 Oct, 14:00: Too light
- Sat 17 Oct, 15:00: Too light
- Sat 17 Oct, 16:00: Too light
- Sat 17 Oct, 17:00: Too light
- Sat 17 Oct, 18:00: Too light
- Sat 17 Oct, 19:00: Dark but cloudy
- Sat 17 Oct, 20:00: Dark but cloudy
- Sat 17 Oct, 21:00: Dark but cloudy
- Sat 17 Oct, 22:00: Dark but cloudy
- Sat 17 Oct, 23:00: Dark but cloudy
- Sun 18 Oct, 00:00: Dark but cloudy
- Sun 18 Oct, 01:00: Dark but cloudy
- Sun 18 Oct, 02:00: Dark but cloudy
- Sun 18 Oct, 03:00: Dark but cloudy
- Sun 18 Oct, 04:00: Dark but cloudy
- Sun 18 Oct, 05:00: Dark but cloudy
- Sun 18 Oct, 06:00: Too light
- Sun 18 Oct, 07:00: Too light
- Sun 18 Oct, 08:00: Too light
- Sun 18 Oct, 09:00: Too light
- Sun 18 Oct, 10:00: Too light
- Sun 18 Oct, 11:00: Too light
- Sun 18 Oct, 12:00: Too light
- Dark, clear, Kp high enough
- Dark and clear, Kp too low
- Dark but cloudy
- Too light
- No forecast
No hour in this window is dark, clear and active enough.
Hours are local time in Tromsø.
Rule of thumb: sun below −12°, cloud cover at or under 40 % and forecast Kp of 0 or more.
Kp: last day and 3-day forecast
- Observed or estimated
- NOAA forecast
- Kp needed in Tromsø
- G1 storm (Kp 5)
Highest forecast Kp in the next 3 days: 4.0
Days in UTC
Data fetched 2026-10-16 23:34 UTC. NOAA SWPC for Kp and OVATION, MET Norway for clouds.
Where the oval is now
NOAA's OVATION model drawn on a polar map. Brighter green means a higher modelled chance of aurora overhead. Select a place to open its page.
- OVATION value
- ≥ 5
- ≥ 10
- ≥ 20
- ≥ 40
- ≥ 70
Coastlines: Natural Earth, public domain. Aurora: NOAA SWPC OVATION, forecast for 00:23 UTC.
Places on the map
Six places, six sets of numbers
Each destination page has its own latitude maths, darkness table and viewing notes.
-
Abisko
Abisko is inside the oval even at Kp 0.
Open Abisko -
Tromsø
Tromsø is inside the oval even at Kp 0.
Open Tromsø -
Rovaniemi
The oval reaches Rovaniemi from about Kp 2.
Open Rovaniemi -
Reykjavik
Reykjavik is inside the oval even at Kp 0.
Open Reykjavik -
Yellowknife
Yellowknife is inside the oval even at Kp 0.
Open Yellowknife -
Fairbanks
The oval reaches Fairbanks from about Kp 1.
Open Fairbanks
How to read this page
- Kp is the planet-wide activity level. It sets how far south the oval reaches.
- The chance is NOAA's OVATION value for the grid cell at your place, valid for about an hour from now.
- The hourly strip shows when it is dark, clear and active enough to be worth going outside.
NOAA's own words on the next three days
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. Forecast discussion issued 2026-10-16 12:30 UTC. Text from NOAA SWPC, in English.